# Semi-informative priors over AI timelines

This website lets you provide your own parameter values for some of the calculations in the Open Philanthropy report "Semi-informative priors over AI timelines". We recommend that you read about the framework info here before entering your own values.

See parameter values used in report info : Low, Central, High

## Calendar year trial definition

A trial is a year of calendar time.

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Probability of AGI by 2036: 4.2% info

## Researcher-year trial definition

A trial is a small % increase in the number of AI researchers. If the number of AI researchers grows exponentially, there's a constant number of trials each year. (More)

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Probability of AGI by 2036: 8.0% info

## Computation trial definition: relative importance of research and computation

Under this trial definition, a trial is a small % increase in the maximum amount of computation used to develop an AI system. If computation grows exponentially, there’s a constant number of trials each year. (More)

The regime starts in 1956.

A 1% increase in the number of researchers is equivalent to a
% increase in computation info
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Probability of AGI by 2036: 9.0% info

## Computation trial definition: lifetime anchor

Consider the computation inside a human brain during the first 30 years of life. We calculate the first trial probability by assuming that by the time we’ve used that amount of computation to develop one AI system, there’s a 50% chance that we’ll have developed AGI (this would have been a salient assumption to make in 1956). (More)

The regime starts in 1956.

Probability of AGI by 2036: 11% info

## Computation trial definition: evolutionary anchor

Consider the total computation needed for the human brain to evolve. We calculate the first trial probability by assuming that by the time we’ve used that amount of computation to develop one AI system, there’s a 50% chance that we’ll have developed AGI (this would have been a salient assumption to make in 1956). (More)

The regime starts when the computation needed to run the human brain for two weeks is first used to develop an AI system. This means that many fewer failures have been observed than for the other computation rules.

Probability of AGI by 2036: 16% info

## Hyper-prior update info

Initial weights of update rules info Initial weights info Weights in 2020 Probability of AGI by 2036
30% 32% 4.2%
30% 25% 8.0%
5.0% 4.0% 9.0%
10% 6.5% 11%
15% 19% 16%
10% 13% 0.0%
Weighted average probability of AGI by 2036: 7.5% info